The Future Sees An Increase in Housing Inventory

 Studies reveal that the population in many communities is ramping up.  Gainesville, Georgia has seen its population jump from 100,000 to 250,000 with around 15,000 projected listings.  Other areas in the county that have seen an increase in population are Port St. Lucie, FL with 23,800, Durham-Chapel Hill, NC with 44,850, North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL with 40,141, Nashville-Davidons-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN with 82,050, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler AZ with 136,394 and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA comes in at 280,999. The market in June 2023 is predicted to see 7.3 million homes come on the market in the 364 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).

Families with children in grades K-12 should make up 22.5% of the market presence of all homes sold in the country. The report broke down each MSA by size and concluded that of those markets with a population of less than 100,000 Rome, GA had the most predicted listings to hit market by June 2023 at 4,323 properties.

Below follows a list of those markets with most homes predicted to come on the market through June 2023 in eight different population sizes:

Markets Under 100,000 Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
Rome, Ga.	4,323
Corvallis, Oregon	4,027
Midland, Mich.	3,998
Columbus, Ind.	3,879
Kokomo, Ind.	3,395
Cape Girardeau, Mo.-Ill.	2,869
Victoria, Texas	2,792
Casper, Wyo.	2,669
Elmira, N.Y.	2,651
Grants Pass, Ore.	2,541

Markets 100,000-250,000 Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
Gainesville, Ga.	14,911
Appleton, Wis.	14,050
Iowa City, Iowa	11,285
Punta Gorda, Fla.	11,272
Barnstable Town, Mass.	10,372
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Ala.	10,248
Charlottesville, Va.	9,704
Oshkosh-Neenah, Wis.	8,826
Rochester, Minn.	8,808
Bend, Ore.	8,499

Markets 250,000-500,000 Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
Port St. Lucie, Fla.	23,800
Greeley, Colo.	22,522
Fort Collins, Colo.	20,395
Naples-Marco Island, Fla.	20,041
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.	19,061
Reno, Nev.	17,956
York-Hanover, Pa.	17,448
Fort Wayne, Ind.	17,037
Boulder, Colo.	16,591
Springfield, Mo.	15,594

Markets 500,000-750,000 Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.	44,850
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa	34,677
Akron, Ohio	24,866
Provo-Orem, Utah	24,726
Fayetteville, N.C.	24,490
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.	23,979
Port St. Lucie, Fla.	23,800
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.	23,495
Winston-Salem, N.C.	23,404
Madison, Wis.	22,760

Markets 750,000-1 Million Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fa.	40,141
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	35,609
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa	34,113
Colorado Springs, Colo.	32,345
Greenville-Anderson, S.C.	30,573
Columbia, S.C.	29,307
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.	28,193
Worcester, Mass.-Conn.	27,969
Knoxville, Tenn.	27,020
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-NJ.	26,980

Markets 1-2 Million Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.	82,050
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	66,952
Jacksonville, Fla.	64,055
Richmond, Va.	46,963
Oklahoma City, Okla.	42,448
Salt Lake City, Utah	38,769
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.	38,738
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.	37,593
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.	36,282
Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.	33,408

Markets 2-4 Million Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.	136,394
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.	117,457
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.	114,061
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	107,895
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.	100,250
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.	96,938
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.	93,578
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.	93,354
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.	89,535
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.	82,928

Markets Under Above 4 Million Population	Predicted Listings Through June 2023
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.	280,999
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas	235,338
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wisc.	225,742
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.	214,522
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W.Va.	213,012
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.	208,133
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas	202,488
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.	150,759
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.	96,356

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Rising Home Prices Are Clashing With the Slowdown in Economic Growth

 Are rising home prices a wild card for the Federal Reserve?

According to an article posted by Bloomberg, the high home prices are a hitch in the Federal Reserve's plans for the nation's slowing economy. Many say that this is the worst inflation the country has seen in forty years. The Federal Reserve wants to put a stop to the inflation that is currently hurting our economy.

The change is planned to come around September of this year. The goal is to have its policy rate at a level it considers to be restrictive, putting further downward pressure on prices.

In order for this to happen there are several factors that have to align. The three biggest are the country needs to pay three months of declining core inflation, measured month-over-month, the rate of home price appreciation needs to slow down in market price gauges and energy prices need to stay contained. If this does happen, the Fed will be able to slow the rise in interest rates.

The reason the change will not happen until September or later is that Colin Powell wants to witness a slow down in inflation via several reports. The one thing that will stall this is the housing market. Why? Because housing inflation falls behind market prices by several months.

This means that when market prices slow down, the housing market will continue to rise for several months extending into 2023. The housing market is still going strong because of low invetnory.

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The Housing Share of Gross Domestic Product Is Higher in 2022

 For the first quarter of 2022 GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.4% causing the housing share to jump up. In fact, reports show an increase of 16.7%. The residential fixed investment (the more cyclical home building and remodeling component) rose to 4.8% of GDP.

Housing and all activities related to housing give to GDP in a couple of ways. The first is through RFI which stands for residential fixed investment. It is effectively the measure of the home building, multifamily development, and remodeling contributions to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees.  The second is the measure of housing services including gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments.

The first quarter of 2022 saw an RFI of 4.8% of the economy which came out to be a $1.18 trillion seasonally adjusted annual pace. The housing services made up 11.9% of the economy which was $2.9 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. That means the total housing's share of GDP was 16.7% for the first quarter of 2022.

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New Orleans Home Prices Future Outlook and Effect on the Economy

 

National industry leaders say that the housing market might slow down soon affecting the home price increases. Although this report looks negative, local New Orleans real estate specialists are confident the market will not go cold soon.

"I don't think weakness is the right word for what we'll see; I think it's going to be more a shift in gears," Missy Whittington, CEO of NOMAR, said.

The New Orleans housing market saw a considerable rise in the number of homes for sale this summer but the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors (NOMAR) September housing-market report predicted an increase in inventory which might bring a slow down in the market. This trend would slow down the price increase, which has not stopped rising in 114 months.

"A lot of buyers got beat up and decided to take a break," Local Agent Katie Witry said. "Now, we're about two weeks behind what is typically the secondbusiest time of year and we'll see how they react when the inventory comes onto the market. It's still a strong market but I see signs that prices are cooling a bit."

Due to Hurricane Ida and buyers frustrated with being priced out of the market, there was a pause in listings coming on the market. The hurricane could have driven some residents away from the area. Local experts feel that this was awash with some residents moving out due to the storms while others moved in.

"After a big storm there's always some people leaving and some moving in," said Witry, speaking on the sidelines of the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtor's annual forecasting symposium.

According to forecasters, New Orleans metro area real estate has seen a 13% jump in single-family home prices this past year. They feel this push has been due to the pandemic wave. This has been seen through the residential real estate market nationwide. This has been due to the lack of inventory and buyer demand.

"The fundamentals of the market have not changed," said Paul Richard, broker at Latter & Blum who co-chaired this year's symposium. "If there is a headwind into 2022 it will be inflation and an uptick in interest rates, but then the jobs market has been improving and even most of the hospitality jobs are back."

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U.S. Regions Sees April Single-Family Permit on the Rise

 

The housing market is still booming, the first four months of 2021 the total number of single-family permits that were issued year-to-date among the country rose to 384,196. This makes a 35.6% increase over April 2020's number.

Year-to-date ending April 2021 there was an increase in all U.S. regions in single-family permits. The Midwest had the highest at 49.8%, the Northeast 48.6%, the West 37.7% and the South 30.9%. Multifamily permits were also very healthy. The highest in the Northeast with 45.8%, South 27.7%, West 34.4% and the Midwest 18.4%.

Within the 50 states and the District of Columbia, the increase from April 2020 YTD and April 2021 YTD in single-family permits were seen across the board. The highest rate came in at 332.1% in the District of Columbia. The jump was from 28 single-family permits in April 2020 to 121 single-family permits in April 2021. The ten highest states combined made up 62% of the total single-family permits issued were Alaska, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, New York, Wyoming and Utah.

The top 10 local metro areas in both single-family permits and multifamily permits were different. Single-family permits were the highest in Houston, Tx, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Tx, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Az, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga, Austin-Round Rock, Tx, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fl, Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, Nc-Sc, Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tn, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fl and Jacksonville, Fl. Multifamily permits were the highest in New York-Newark-Jersey City, Ny-Nj-Pa, Austin-Round Rock, Tx, Dallas-Forth Work-Arlington, Tx, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Ca, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wa, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, Dc-Va-Md-Wv, Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa-Nj-De-Md, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Mn-Wi, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Tx and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Co.

Now is a great time to purchase a home. If you are in the market for a new home, contact a local Realtor today.

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Baby Boomers Are Taking Advantage of the Current Home Seller's Market

Photo by MART PRODUCTION from Pexels

 

The current housing market is the hottest it has been since before the Great Recession. According to the National Association of Realtors® 2021 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, sellers made a median of $66,000 on the sale of their homes this year. This is a $6,000 increase from the same time in 2020. Sellers are reaping the benefits and the majority of sellers today are baby boomers.

"In a real estate market that is tipped in the favor of sellers, boomers and older homeowners are really the ones holding the cards," says realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. Those who are selling homes can use the profits to help them buy new ones, she adds, pointing out that they're "generally better equipped to deal with market conditions."

Record low mortgage rates and lack of home inventory have buyers in a big competition. This buyer frenzy means homes are selling quickly and for high prices. Today sellers are getting roughly 99% of their original asking price for their home. Some sellers are even seeing bidding wars, getting a higher price than the original asking price. Current inventory is lasting only 3 weeks before they are sold.

When looking at sellers by generation, baby boomers make up 43% of those currently selling a home. Baby boomers are in a stage of life where they want to downsize. The pandemic has also shifted many baby boomers to want to move closer to family members in the same sized home.

Millennials make up the largest share of buyers at 37%. Out of the 37%, 31% of those buyers were first-time homebuyers. This market is a difficult market to navigate for first-time homebuyers."Millennials have a lot of headwinds entering the real estate market," says Jessica Lautz, NAR’s vice president of demographics and behavioral insights. "There's not enough homes to go around for the buyers who want to be able to purchase."

Another surprising fact is that younger buyers are more likely to pay over the asking price in this competitive market. “In a market where competitive bids are the norm in many areas, it’s interesting to note that younger buyers are more likely to pay over asking [price]," says Hale. "They've got longer working careers, so they [may be] more willing to take risks."

Of those homes that are in most demand, detached, single-family homes made up 81% of the sales so far this year. Buyers want a detached home with a backyard and a garage. Families want their own space and more space to accommodate home offices and remote schooling. Existing home sales are in more demand due to cheaper pricing and more in inventory. Only 15% of homes sold so far this year are new construction.

Generation X made up 18% of buyers that purchased multigenerational homes. This generation has aging parents that might need assistance. "They're purchasing multi-generational homes [to] take care of aging relatives and keep them out of nursing rooms or for caregiving of young children who may not be able to go to daycare or child care because of the pandemic," says Lautz. "The other big reason is pooling incomes to be able to buy a larger home."

The study indicated that today's typical buyer has a median income of $96,500 in 2019 with 65% married. 18% single women, 9% single men and 9% unmarried couples. “Single women remain a large buying force,” Lautz said in a statement. “A number of divorced women and those who were recently widowed purchased a home without the help of a spouse or roommate.”

Eighty-seven percent of buyers financed their homes while young buyers were the most likely to put all of their savings toward a down payment. Older buyers, such as baby boomers, purchased homes using money earned off a home sale.

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Mortgage Refinance Demand Up 20% in 2021

 

The beginning of 2021 has been an uptick in mortgage rates. This upward climb has many rushing to take advantage of the record low rates. According to Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted rate index, mortgage applications to refinance on a home loan have risen 20% last the first full week in January compared to the week before.

“Booming refinance activity in the first full week of 2021 caused mortgage applications to surge to their highest level since March 2020, despite most mortgage rates in the survey rising last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “The expectation of additional fiscal stimulus from the incoming administration, and the rollout of vaccines improving the outlook, drove Treasury yields and rates higher.”

According to the report, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 2.88% from 2.86% last week for loans with a 20% down payment. This makes the current rate 99 basis points higher than a year ago.

“For now, an air of mortgage rate invincibility and persistent setting of new record lows has been replaced by a healthy respect for what may be the first stage of a rising rate environment, the first time we’ve seen such a thing since 2018,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.

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Three Things Home Owners Desire for Quality of Life at Home

 

The pandemic has shifted the things we want in a home. Homebuyers are looking for comfort, wellness and efficiency. According to the 2020 Green Smart Market Brief, high-performance homes are on the rise.

A good resource for consumer's high-performance must-haves when it comes to building or remodeling a home can be found in National Green Building Standard® (NGBS)'s Bronze Cookbooks. The NGBS Bronze cookbooks give a roadmap to what is used and incorporated into a NGBS Green Certified home.

Below are the top 3 home qualities customers are looking for in today's housing market.

Customer Want: Comfort	High-Performance Strategies
No drafts	Continuous building envelope (confirm with a blower door test) Weatherstripping around windows and doors
Consistent indoor temperatures	Smart thermostat Weatherstripping around windows and doors Continuous building envelope (confirm with a blower door test) High R-value insulation in floors, walls and ceilings
Quiet	ENERGY STAR appliances Added drywall Acoustic panels and sealants Solid core doors

 

Customer Want: Wellness	High-Performance Strategies
Healthy indoor environment	Balanced ventilation Fresh air intakes Kitchen range hood that vents directly outdoors Bathroom exhaust fans HVAC filtration — high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) or high MERV rating Low volatile organic compound (VOC) materials
No odors	Kitchen range hood that vents outdoors Balanced ventilation Low VOC materials
No mold	Bathroom exhaust fans that vent outdoors HVAC systems with sensors and automation Moisture-resistant barrier in building envelope Leak detection system
Natural light	Double- or triple-pane window with lower solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) and U-factors

 

Customer Want: Efficiency	High-Performance Strategies
Lower energy bills	Smart thermostat High R-value insulation in floors, walls and ceilings Continuous building envelope (confirm with a blower door test) ENERGY STAR appliances
Lower water bills	WaterSense-labeled fixtures Minimize pipe runs (distance from water heater to fixtures) Leak detection system Landscaping with drought-tolerant plants Smart irrigation systems

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