Fannie Mae Forecasts Lower Mortgage Rates and Softer Home Prices Through 2026

After years of turbulence in the housing market, new forecasts suggest the next two years could bring long-awaited relief for homebuyers.

When inflation soared past 9% in 2022, the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs aggressively, aiming to cool the economy. By late 2024, inflation had nearly returned to the Fed's 2% target, prompting interest rate cuts. Many expected mortgage rates to dip below 6%. Instead, they climbed back toward 7%, leaving economists and homebuyers scratching their heads.

Why Rates Stayed Higher Than Expected

Despite rate cuts, stubborn inflation, global economic uncertainty, and volatile markets have kept mortgage rates elevated. The result: hesitant buyers, reluctant sellers, and a housing market stuck in neutral.

But new analysis from Fannie Mae offers a more optimistic outlook for the years ahead, with falling mortgage rates, rising sales, and slower home price growth on the horizon.

Mortgage Rates Could Drift Lower

At the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting, policymakers held rates steady, but the CME FedWatch tool shows a 65% chance of a cut in September. If that happens, investor confidence could improve, pushing mortgage rates back down.

Fannie Mae now projects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 6.4% by the end of 2025 and 6.0% by the end of 2026. While modest, these revisions are more favorable than the agency's earlier predictions of 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively.

Lower rates could breathe life into the market. Fannie Mae has raised its sales forecast to 4.85 million homes sold in 2025 (up from 4.82 million) and 5.35 million in 2026 (up from 5.25 million).

Housing Prices May Cool

While affordability challenges remain the biggest barrier for first-time buyers, slower price growth could provide some relief.

According to Fannie Mae's July update, annual home price appreciation is expected to slow to 2.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, down from prior forecasts of 4.1% and 2.0%. Rising inventory and weaker demand are likely to keep prices in check.

For sellers, slower growth may be a disappointment. But for buyers, stable home values paired with lower mortgage rates could mark a turning point after years of steep increases.

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers may finally see a market with less price pressure, more inventory, and slightly lower borrowing costs—though affordability will still be a challenge.

Sellers may need to adjust expectations, as slower price growth and higher competition could soften returns.

The market overall is likely to move gradually back toward balance, with fewer extremes than in recent years.

Fannie Mae's latest forecast suggests the housing market may be entering a period of stability. Mortgage rates are expected to decline gradually, sales should climb, and price growth will ease. For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, 2025 and 2026 may finally bring the window of opportunity they've been hoping for.

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Mortgage rates barely budged this week, offering little relief for buyers navigating one of the toughest housing markets in years.

Freddie Mac reported that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage settled at 6.74% for the week ending July 23, a marginal drop from 6.75% the week prior. The average 15-year fixed mortgage dipped to 5.87%, down from 5.92%.

While the shifts are small, the consistency provides some stability in an otherwise unpredictable housing environment. "Overall, the backdrop for the housing market is positive as the economy continues to perform well with solid employment and income growth," said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

Mortgage activity reflects the mixed signals. Applications to purchase homes climbed 3% from last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, but refinance activity dropped by the same margin. "We expect overall demand to ebb and flow as long as mortgage rates remain volatile due to the ongoing economic uncertainty," said Bob Broeksmit, MBA CEO and president.

The bigger challenge lies in home sales. Realtor.com now forecasts that existing home sales could fall to just 4 million transactions in 2025, down 1.5% from last year and marking another historic low. At the start of the year, analysts expected sales to rise slightly — but higher borrowing costs and limited affordability have kept many buyers on the sidelines.

For now, mortgage rates remain elevated, and while they have steadied in recent weeks, housing market activity shows few signs of a meaningful rebound.

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Bollinger Shipyards, a nearly eight-decade-old Louisiana company best known for building vessels for the commercial, military, and government sectors, is entering the space race. The company has been tapped by Rocket Lab, a California-based aerospace firm, to convert a barge into a floating landing platform for reusable rockets.

The project, which began earlier this summer, will transform a 400-foot vessel into a high-tech ocean platform equipped with thrusters for stability, remote-control systems, and blast shields designed to withstand rocket exhaust. Once completed, the platform — aptly named "Return on Investment" — will support Rocket Lab's Neutron rockets along the East Coast near the company's Virginia launch site.

"Partnering with Rocket Lab on this venture highlights not only the innovation happening in space flight, but also the adaptability of American shipbuilding," said Bollinger Shipyards President and CEO Ben Bordelon.

The work is taking place at Bollinger's Amelia, Louisiana facility and is expected to wrap up in 2026. The vessel will play a critical role in Rocket Lab's push to develop a reusable rocket program, putting the company in direct competition with industry giants like Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin.

Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket stands 141 feet tall and is capable of carrying payloads of up to 13 tons into orbit. The company envisions it as a workhorse for satellite launches and national security missions.

"This project modernizes Gulf Coast shipyard capabilities while positioning Louisiana to contribute directly to the future of aerospace," said Shaun D'Mello, Rocket Lab's vice president.

Bollinger has built more than 4,000 vessels since its founding in 1946 and remains one of the largest employers in the bayou parishes, with annual revenues exceeding $1 billion. Its new contract with Rocket Lab is the latest example of Louisiana's deep ties to the space industry.

Just outside New Orleans, NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility has been a hub for rocket construction for more than 60 years. Local leaders say Bollinger's new project continues that legacy in a rapidly expanding commercial market.

"As commercial space exploration accelerates, recovery and support missions at sea will become increasingly important," said Josh Tatum of Greater New Orleans Inc. "Louisiana is well-positioned to be part of that future."

Founded in 2006 in New Zealand by Peter Beck, Rocket Lab relocated its headquarters to California in 2013 and has since grown into a global competitor with about 2,000 employees. The company has already launched more than 200 satellites and recently inked a deal with the European Space Agency, which helped push its stock to a record high this summer.

With the "Return on Investment" platform under construction in Louisiana, Rocket Lab is betting on a new era of reusable rockets — and Bollinger Shipyards is ensuring the Gulf Coast has a front-row seat in the race to space.

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Halfway through 2025, the U.S. housing market remains stuck in uncertain waters. Buyers and sellers alike are facing challenges that trace back to the pandemic years: elevated mortgage rates, home prices that remain high compared to historical norms, limited inventory, and economic headwinds that keep confidence shaky.

Affordability is still the biggest hurdle. According to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, home prices have climbed 60 percent since 2019, while the salary required to purchase a home has surged by 70 percent in the same period. Mortgage rates, hovering in the high-6 percent range, continue to put pressure on monthly budgets.

Even so, the story isn't entirely grim. For those willing to pay close attention to shifting conditions, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Mortgage Rates: High but Predictable

Borrowers are no longer spoiled with sub-3 percent rates as they were in 2021, but the good news is that rates have leveled out. For most of this year, they've hovered between 6.7 and 6.9 percent, and forecasts suggest they may dip slightly to the mid-6 percent range by year's end.

That kind of stability, though costly, gives buyers a chance to plan. Running "what if" scenarios on a mortgage calculator — adjusting rates by half a point up or down — provides a realistic picture of payment ranges and can help households prepare financially without the fear of sudden spikes.

More Homes on the Market, Prices Cooling

Perhaps the biggest shift in 2025 is the supply of homes. After years of scarcity, inventory has risen. In June, the National Association of Realtors reported a 16 percent year-over-year increase, bringing supply to 4.7 months — still below pre-pandemic levels but the healthiest reading in years.

More listings mean buyers have more choice and less pressure to rush into bidding wars. It also slows price growth. Instead of the double-digit jumps seen in 2022, prices are rising at a fraction of that pace: just 0.2 percent in June, with the median list price landing around $441,000.

The Rising Cost of Staying Put

Even after securing a fixed-rate mortgage, homeowners are discovering that monthly payments aren't as predictable as they once were. Property taxes have risen in step with home values, climbing 12 percent from 2021 to 2023. Insurance has proven even more volatile: premiums jumped 24 percent between 2021 and 2024, largely due to the growing impact of natural disasters.

For buyers, that means budgeting shouldn't stop at principal and interest. Taxes and insurance can be significant — and rising — expenses that determine whether a home truly fits within long-term financial plans.

Sellers Adjust Expectations

On the selling side, there's a noticeable shift in attitude. With more homes competing for fewer buyers, price reductions are becoming common. Nearly one in five listings saw a cut in June, the highest share for that month in nearly a decade.

That trend signals realism taking root. Sellers are less likely to expect bidding wars or offers well above asking price. Instead, they're using discounts as a negotiation tool, which gives buyers leverage they haven't had in years.

A Market Finding Its Balance

The market is far from easy, but it is evolving toward a healthier balance. Buyers no longer need to panic-buy, and sellers are starting to recognize the importance of pricing strategically. As Hannah Jones of Realtor.com notes, those who follow these shifts closely will be best positioned: buyers can move quickly when opportunities appear, while sellers can adjust to attract serious offers.

For anyone planning a move in the second half of 2025, the key is preparation. Understand your budget, monitor local trends, and be ready to act when conditions line up. The post-pandemic housing market may be challenging, but for informed buyers and sellers, it's also becoming more navigable.

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Signs You’re Ready for a Mortgage and How to Prepare if You’re Not

Buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments you'll ever make, so it's natural to wonder whether you're really ready to take on a mortgage. According to Freddie Mac, there are some clear signs that you may be in good shape to move forward.

One of the most important is your credit score. A score of 661 or higher generally places you in the "creditworthy" range, while a score between 600 and 660 suggests you're close but may need more work. If your score is under 600, it's a strong signal that you should wait. Your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio is another big factor. Ideally, your projected mortgage payment should be no more than 25 percent of your income, and your total debt should fall under 36 percent — with 43 percent usually being the upper limit for lenders. You'll also need a clean credit history with no recent bankruptcies or foreclosures and a track record of making payments on time.

It's worth noting that you don't have to check every box perfectly to get approved. Lenders may still consider you if your credit score or DTI isn't ideal, but that could stretch your finances and make it harder to reach other goals.

How to Strengthen Your Finances Before Applying

Mortgage lenders look at the big picture when reviewing your application. That includes your credit history, income, debt levels, employment stability, and savings. If you're not where you want to be yet, here are three steps to get closer:

1. Review and improve your credit

Pull your free credit reports from Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion at AnnualCreditReport.com and check for errors. Correcting mistakes such as inaccurately reported late payments can boost your score. Even a 20-point increase could save you thousands over the life of your loan. Most lenders require at least a 620 score, but the best rates typically go to borrowers with scores of 740 or higher.

2. Reduce your debt load

Consistently making payments on time is the fastest way to build credit health. To lower your balances, consider strategies like the debt snowball or avalanche method, or even debt consolidation if it makes sense. Lowering your debt will improve both your credit score and your DTI ratio, two areas that carry significant weight in a mortgage application. At the same time, avoid taking on new loans, which can increase your debt burden and lower your score.

3. Build up your savings

Beyond monthly payments, homeownership comes with big upfront costs. You'll need cash for the down payment, closing costs, and moving expenses, as well as reserves for furniture, repairs, and emergencies. While the median down payment in April 2025 was over $56,000, many first-time buyers put down closer to 9 percent of the purchase price. Setting aside money in a high-yield savings account and cutting unnecessary expenses are great ways to build your fund. One helpful strategy is to make "practice payments": if you're paying $1,500 in rent and expect a $2,500 mortgage, start putting the extra $1,000 into savings each month.

Not everyone is ready to buy a home right away, and that's perfectly normal. If your credit, debt, or savings aren't where they need to be, the best move might be to wait. In the meantime, focus on maintaining good financial habits: pay bills on time, avoid unnecessary debt, and save consistently. Even if homeownership isn't possible right now, the steps you take today will position you for a stronger application in the future.

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Smart Ways Parents Can Support First-Time Buyers Without Risking Their Own Future

Buying a first home is no small feat. For many young adults, the challenges are steep: saving for a deposit, qualifying for a mortgage, and navigating the added costs of legal fees, taxes, and insurance. With housing prices still high in many areas, more and more first-time buyers are turning to the "bank of mum and dad" for support. For parents willing to lend a hand, there are now a variety of financial tools available—each with its own pros, cons, and implications.

The most common way parents help is by gifting money toward the deposit. A larger deposit can dramatically improve mortgage terms and make approval more likely. However, lenders require clear documentation confirming the funds are a gift, not a loan. If the buyer is purchasing with a partner, it's wise to formalize the arrangement with a deed of trust that outlines who the money belongs to and what should happen if the couple separates or sells the property. If the funds are being lent, rather than gifted, that should also be documented, though doing so may slightly reduce the buyer's borrowing power since some lenders treat personal loans as a liability.

Parents who don't have immediate cash available can explore other ways to raise funds. A personal loan may work for smaller contributions. For larger needs, a retirement interest-only mortgage allows homeowners to borrow against their equity and make only interest payments, with the loan repaid when the home is sold after death or long-term care begins.

For those concerned about giving up a lump sum, family offset mortgages offer a middle-ground solution. These mortgages link a parent's savings to their child's loan, reducing the interest owed without transferring funds permanently. Barclays' Family Springboard mortgage, for example, lets parents deposit 10% of the home's value into a special account for five years. At the end of the term, the money is returned, assuming repayments have been met.

Guarantor mortgages offer another alternative, particularly when income is the main barrier. By using their own savings or home as collateral, parents can help their child qualify for a mortgage they might not obtain on their own. The risk, of course, is that the parent becomes liable if their child can't make the payments—so financial stability and legal clarity are key.

A more flexible option gaining popularity is the joint borrower sole proprietor (JBSP) mortgage. This allows parents and children to be listed as borrowers on the mortgage, but only the child is named on the property title. This setup helps increase borrowing capacity while avoiding additional stamp duty charges and keeping the property out of the parents' taxable estate.

Traditional joint mortgages are still an option as well. These allow parents and children to combine their incomes to qualify for a larger loan. However, ownership must be clearly defined—either as joint tenants or tenants in common—and parents who already own property should be aware of second-home stamp duty surcharges and future capital gains tax implications.

Some new-build developers are now recognizing the role families play in home purchases and offering targeted incentives. For example, Persimmon's "Bank of Mum & Dad" program offers parents a £2,000 reward if they contribute at least 5% of the purchase price toward their child's new home.

Estate planning is another crucial consideration. Gifting money during your lifetime can reduce the value of your taxable estate, as long as you live for at least seven years after the gift is made. Each individual can gift up to £3,000 annually tax-free, and unused amounts can roll over for one year. That means a couple could give their child £12,000 in one year without affecting their inheritance tax position. Wedding gifts up to £5,000 are also tax-exempt.

Still, generosity must be balanced with personal financial security. A financial adviser can help assess whether a gift or loan is sustainable, using cash flow projections to ensure parents aren't jeopardizing their own future. It's also important to update your will and securely store documentation for any contributions made, whether as gifts or loans.

In the end, helping your child buy their first home is a deeply rewarding gesture—but it requires planning. From legal protections to tax planning and affordability checks, each step should be taken with care. Whether you're contributing savings, offering a guarantee, or exploring new mortgage structures, speaking with professionals can help you make informed decisions that support your child while safeguarding your own financial health.

With the right structure and sound advice, you can help your child move forward with confidence—and maybe even unlock new peace of mind for yourself in the process.

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